“Belene Nuclear Power Plant: Studies and Positions of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences”
Assoc. Prof. DSc Plamen Tsvetanov
On 31 August 2020, thirty years marked the publication of the largest book in Bulgaria in the field of energy — “Belene Nuclear Power Plant: Studies and Positions of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences”. Thanks to the electronic version made available by the Center for the Study of Democracy and the leadership of the Bulgarian Energy and Mining Forum (BEMF), this long out-of-print book is now accessible to every Bulgarian citizen.
Due to the systemic nature of the energy sector, the book reflects the research and official position of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAS) across five key problem areas:
- Socio-economic and energy development of the country and the justification for constructing the Belene NPP, including a scenario analysis of interactions between economic development, energy demand, and energy supply, using one of the most advanced modelling systems developed in Bulgaria with funding from the State Committee for Science and Technical Progress (1980–1985);
- The technical design of the Belene NPP and the technical level of its facilities, representing an unprecedented assessment of the project’s technical quality and construction risks in Bulgaria;
- Seismicity of the construction site, seismic risk, and design characteristics, studied by four BAS institutes, with repeated funding over time to demonstrate the absence of seismic risk — a major environmental issue deliberately neglected over the past decade;
- Environmental impact of the Belene NPP;
- Public opinion and societal reactions regarding the construction of the Belene NPP, including trust in BAS scientists’ opinions. Research by the Institute of Sociology and the Central Laboratory of Psychology showed that public trust in BAS exceeded all other decision-making mechanisms by 18 to 40 percentage points and surpassed the proposal for a national referendum by 8 points.
The official position of BAS, prepared by a collective of 86 researchers and experts, concluded that:
“The studies and analyses as a whole lead to the conclusion that, from an energy, economic, technical, seismic, environmental, and social perspective, the construction of the Belene Nuclear Power Plant is insufficiently justified and unacceptable.”
From my perspective as a co-author and coordinator of the research and publication, this book is unique in its systemic approach to energy development, both present and future, and will never be replicated. One key reason is the closure, during the first decade of the 21st century, of traditionally leading research and design institutes in Bulgaria — such as Energoproekt, Minproekt, Industrial Energy, and the Energy Systems Analysis Laboratory at the Institute for Nuclear Research and Nuclear Energy (BAS), which had coordinated systemic energy studies. A second major reason is the ongoing degradation of energy culture and governance in Bulgaria.
The “Belene saga” continues. Contrary to the systemic research and transparency of the White Book, over the past five years several actions with strategically negative consequences for Bulgaria’s energy development have occurred:
- In 2016, despite the project being halted by the National Assembly, directors of NEK ordered two nuclear reactors from Rosatom. Bulgaria was subsequently forced to pay for them, and the reactors were delivered for storage in Bulgaria.
- BEH and the Ministry of Energy commissioned BAS, specifically the Institute for Economic Research, to prepare a National Energy Strategy (focused on electricity). After completion in 2016–2017, only a small, unattributed portion was made public. Nearly 1,000 pages were entirely censored and remain unknown to society.
- Based on the manipulated BAS project, the Minister of Energy submitted a proposal to Parliament to seek investors for Belene NPP, under the condition that Bulgaria would not guarantee electricity purchases.
- Throughout this period, the Ministry of Energy ignored the positions of BEMF — that Belene NPP is not competitive and Bulgaria does not need new large baseload capacities by 2040 — as well as the position of the Association of Bulgarian Energy Agencies (ABEA) regarding the enormous financial risks involved.
- Currently, the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Environment and Water are preparing the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan 2021–2030, which misleadingly presents nuclear energy as a “local energy resource” and suggests increasing nuclear generation to 70% by 2050.
This narrative — that “nuclear energy equals energy independence” — is not a misunderstanding but a deliberate provocation against strategic national energy planning and Bulgaria’s European integration.
Bulgarian energy policy needs sound judgment, professionalism, resource and technological innovation, competitiveness, and social affordability in serving society’s energy needs.